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[Infographic] Week 11 NFL Betting Guide

Posted by Jackson Anthony on 11/17/2011 5:37:04 PM

We've been big fans of Advanced NFL Stats for a while.

They provide advanced statistical models to analyze why things happen in the NFL - one of the most unpredictable professional leagues in the world.

For instance, they've measured the amount of luck that factors in to an NFL team winning a game. (see this post)

Recently, Advanced NFL Stats has provided a win probability calculation that predicts the likelihood of an NFL team winning a game prior to kickoff.

We thought it would be interesting to take this model and combine it with real NFL game odds.

Our hope is that with these two sets of data, wagerers can better analyze their picks.

We used this statistical model for the first time last week and picked 10 games correct out of 15. Please let us know how we can improve this graphic for the future in the comments.

The teams and odds in GREEN are statistically the best value picks for this NFL weekend.

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