NFL Lines - Wes Welker's Dropped Pass Made The Patriots 30 Percent More Likely To Lose
Football analyst Brian Burke, a guest writer for the New York Times Fifth Down Blog, broke down the New England Patriots win probability after Wes Welker's dropped pass in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl.
Burke noted that if Welker had caught the ball, the Patriots would have had a 95 percent chance of winning the game. New England would have been inside the Giants 20-yard line with just over 4 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter and a 2 point lead.
Instead, the drop caused the Patriots win probability to drop by 30 percent, to 65.
source: New York Times
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