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NFL Expert Pick – New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers

Posted by Marcello Messina on 10/20/2010 2:18:54 PM

NFL expert pick bottom line: bet on the Chargers at home and bet against them when they play on the road. Below are the top 3 reasons why San Diego will cover (-3) against New England.

(4-1) New England Patriots at (2-4) San Diego Chargers
Live from Qualcomm Stadium - CA
Kickoff: 4:15 PM EST Sunday, October 24, 2010
Broadcast: CBS

NorthBet NFL Expert Pick Odds:
San Diego Chargers -3
New England Patriots +3
Total 47

1. Playing at Home

Despite their 2-4 record, San Diego is actually pretty darn good when playing at home.

The Chargers went 6-2 at Qualcomm last NFL betting season, with a +45 point differential in those games and this season they have yet to lose at home.

Playing in San Diego, Phillip Rivers has completed over 75% of his attempts, while averaging 1.67 passing touchdowns and just fewer than 200 yards per game. Rivers has managed to attain an average overall passer rating of 130.9 in home contests this season.

 2. New England Defense

In an attempt to add more youth in their defense, New England has juiced up their defensive unit by adding a handful of new faces. However, their adolescence has shown at times.

The Patriots are ranked in the bottom half of the league in total defense, giving up more than 380 yards and 23 points per game. They rank 29th in pass defense, after giving up over 270 passing yards per game, including 285 to Joe Flacco a week ago.

The Patriots defensive unit has a legitimate nightmare matchup this NFL betting Sunday, facing off with the league’s number one passing offense.

Expect Phillip Rivers to have his way.

3. Absence of Randy Moss

You, I, and every NFL betting expert knows that New England’s offense is nothing compared to what it was with Randy Moss’ presence.

Bill Belichick needs to wake up and realize that it’s not 2004; Deion Branch does not make up for the absence of arguably the league’s best wide receiver.

Without Moss, the Patriots lack a true deep threat, which leads opposing defenses to move up tighter in coverage.

In his first NFL betting matchup without his best wideout, Tom Brady threw only one touchdown and finished the game with a 69.5 passer rating.

This week, Brady plays versus the league’s best pass defense; a unit that limits opposing quarterbacks to 164 yards per game.

NFL Expert Pick: San Diego Chargers (-3).


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