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Week 5 NFL Betting Picks – The Top-5 Bets for Week 4

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 10/4/2015 8:12:03 AM

We’re inching closer to that point where the season is starting to show real winners and losers from a gambling standpoint, and while we sort through the junk pile of games this weekend, here are my top choices for Week 4 NFL betting picks.

New York Jets -2.5 over Miami Dolphins (9:30 am EST – London Game)

Right now, you can beat the Jets by running on them. That will be the case for at least one more game until Sheldon Richardson returns to wreak havoc. The problem for Miami? They’re terrible at running the football, ranking 28th in the league with a paltry 72.7 yards per game.

I don’t love what New York does offensively, but their conservative approach sets up big play potential with Brandon Marshall dominating smaller corners.

Miami has that awful feeling of a team that’s giving up on its entire coaching staff too, so they’re a logical bet-off team in Week 4 NFL betting picks.

The favorites in these London games tend to pan out far better than the dogs, and if this is an ugly game as both teams adjust to the travel schedule, New York is far better suited to win a grueling slugfest than the Dolphins. It’s that simple sometimes.

ATLANTA FALCONS -6 over Houston Texans (1pm EST)

It’s insane to me that the Houston Texans could feature so many big time studs in the front-seven and rank 19th in rushing yards allowed with 108.7 against. It’s not that Atlanta has a stout rushing attack, but the pieces of this Texans defense just aren’t fitting together properly.

It also seems ridiculous to expect Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph to stop Julio Jones who is steamrolling this league with otherworldly numbers. Neither team presents a ton of interest from a betting trends standpoint, but the Houston offence seems stagnated without a real rushing attack and that has me leaning the other way firmly in Week 5 NFL betting picks.

Until Arian Foster returns, I’m betting feverishly against the Texans and I’m riding this seemingly implausible Atlanta hot streak until it burns out.

Carolina Panthers -3.0 over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (1pm EST)

The Panthers and Falcons will be fighting over crumbs in the NFC South all season long, and if you’re cooling off on Carolina, I don’t necessarily blame you.

They’re not a team that has a lot of firepower with the worst receiving corps in the league (thanks to the Benjamin injury).

But they have Cam Newton, and anyone who’s bet on the Panthers in years past knows that this team has always been a “sum of parts” type of equation. This defense is still rock solid, and can haunt the turnover prone Jameis Winston with relative ease. And the one thing that the Panthers do exceptionally well – run the football – is the weakest part of this Bucs defense as well.

The favorite is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these two, and the road team has also gone 4-1 ATS. I don’t trust Carolina to grind their way to another, unexpected playoff appearance, but I trust Jameis far less in general. Until Tampa gets their act together (which may never happen), they’re an easy fall guy to bet against in Week 5 NFL betting picks.

ARIZONA CARDINALS -7.0 over St. Louis Rams (4:25pm EST)

St. Louis is 0-4 ATS when playing Arizona as well, and a brutal 2-6 ATS when visiting University of Phoenix Stadium. The general rule is that you only bet the Rams if they’re playing Seattle, or playing at home. Right now, the rule might not be to bet on them at all.

One of the things about St. Louis is that they can’t seem to pick up first downs, which is kind of critical to scoring points. Bringing Todd Gurley along slowly is sure to be a great, long term call, but until he’s dominating games, there’s no reason to take a chance on the Rams.

As for Arizona, the league’s top scoring team, you can basically bet them blind. Bruce Arians is the best coach in the game not named “Belichik” and Arizona’s amazing 8-1 ATS record when playing at home, along with their 20-7 ATS record overall in 27 games is just too good to bet against.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -10.0 over Detroit Lions (Monday Night)

These double digit lines for Seattle when they play at home can be pretty obnoxious, but there’s merit here. First off, Seattle is an undeniably strong play at home. But they’re also playing against a Detroit team that is terrified of rifling the ball downfield. Checkdowns aren’t going to beat Seattle.

Meanwhile, the Lions are winless and haven’t covered a single game. I’m not sold that Seattle has an easy road to the playoffs after losing two, important games, but this is a matchup you shouldn’t be scared of just because of what feels like a lofty spread.

Don’t get cute trying to take the Lions here. Cap off your Week 4 NFL betting schedule with a win on the Seahawks in the Clink.

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