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Week 16 NFL Betting Picks – The Games That Matter

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 12/27/2015 8:54:51 AM

When it comes to the playoffs, these are the games that matter in Week 16 NFL betting picks. When it comes to gambling? All the games matter! But I prefer the boiler room climate that these games represent with high stakes and big time pressure. You won’t find teams tanking or playing with cold feet in these ones.

New England Patriots -2.5 over NEW YORK JETS

Sunday, Dec. 27th --- 1pm EST

Big potential for the Jets here but I absolutely love the Patriots on a tight line. Both teams are 7-5 ATS this season, but there’s still plenty at stake for New England. Cincinnati is pressing and Denver is still within range of dropping New England down a peg in the playoff standings. Homefield advantage and the first round bye are vital to the Patriots and they know this.

The reason you take the Jets in Week 16 NFL betting picks is because they’re a stifling 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games in December, but New England is also 12-4 ATS when playing in New York. The road team is also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 head-to-head meetings. This line is simply too low to ignore the logical temptation.

Cleveland Browns +11 over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Sunday, Dec. 27th --- 1pm EST

Too many points. That’s about it. The Chiefs are a notorious letdown team in Week 16 NFL betting picks, going 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games during the second last week of the season. Other than that, the trends look solid for KC. But I also like the confidence in Kansas City when it comes to playing close games. There’s no need to blow Cleveland out of the building. They can grind this out.

Cleveland remains one of the worst betting choices in the NFL with a horrific 1-7 SU and ATS over the past two months. What you’re banking on here is some garbage time effort from the Browns. Frankly, it feels like they’re due for a strong outing. This team isn’t as bad as their record indicates; they’re just poorly coached. I would stuff this in a stocking on its own, or reduce it to a two-game parlay play if you really felt like getting the most out of your money.

Carolina Panthers -7.0 over Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, Dec. 27th --- 1pm EST

Yeah, because the last time these teams met it went so well. The Falcons barely got over the hump against the Jaguars. Are you really going to get frisky with your Week 16 NFL betting picks after they had their cans kicked 0-38 just two weeks ago? That undefeated season means a lot to Carolina. It’s full steam ahead for the Panthers.

ARIZONA CARDINALS -6 over Green Bay Packers

Sunday, Dec. 27th --- 4:25pm EST

The loss of the Honey Badger is a big deal for the Cardinals, but as I’ve been saying all year long, they’re the deepest team in the NFL. The guy that slides in to Mathieu’s spot is Deonne Bucannon who has been outstanding this season in relief efforts. It’s imperative that the Cardinals get their defense in sync with a new player at safety, and Bruce Arians knows that.

The Packers have owned this series with a 5-2 ATS record over their past 7 meetings, and people will love taking the points here but I haven’t trusted Green Bay outright in any game this season. I’ve always felt that they’re going to get caught. And really, their 3-0 SU and ATS record has been against losing teams. This matchup should be more reflective of their mid-season slump against playoff contenders more than their recent winning streak.

Pittsburgh Steelers -10.0 over Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, Dec. 27th --- 4:25pm EST

The Steelers have to win out to hold off the Jets and potentially steal homefield advantage in the wild card weekend away from Denver or Kansas City. And this just doesn’t seem like enough points with the most dangerous offense in the league playing against the worst bet across the board. Baltimore is just 1-9-1 ATS when playing at home. Are you really going to take a chance here on Jimmy Clausen or Ryan Mallett? Get real.

St. Louis Rams +12 over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Sunday, Dec. 27th --- 4:25pm EST

Too many points and too many problems for this awesome divisional matchup. The Rams have a tendency to play at their ceiling when battling the Seahawks as is evident through their 5-2 ATS record in the last seven meetings. And while I love everything that the Seahawks are doing right now, there has to be a breaking point. Again, this is just too many points and I’m happy to take them in a stand alone play in NFL Week 16 betting picks, while I tie the other investments up together in parlays.

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