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Week 11 NFL Betting Pick – Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

Posted by Tim Furious on 11/19/2015 11:50:48 AM

At the beginning of the season, there was hyperbole that Minnesota would challenge Green Bay for the NFC North. In a stretch where the Vikings went 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS to end the 2014 season, they barely lost to Green Bay. We all thought that they had the makings of an up and coming team.

Slowly but surely, the Vikings have put together the pieces. They aren’t nearly as explosive on offense as we thought they’d be, ranking just 22nd in scoring and 29th in total yards, but they lead the NFL in rushing thanks to Adrian Peterson and have a top-10 defense that is first in points denied with just 17.1 allowed per game.

They also have the best betting record of any team in the NFL.

People can cringe when they watch Teddy Bridgewater play, but the game plan that Mike Zimmer has him in protects his shortcomings. And results are results. They are winning games by slight margins because they can’t put up a consistent amount of points, but they still own wins over decent teams like Oakland and Kansas City. They barely lost to Denver and their only other loss was in Week 1.

The Vikings have, in a way, met expectations. They’ve taken advantage of an NFC crumbling before our very eyes with plenty of top teams dropping out of serious contentions. And yes, one of those teams is these Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay Packers (6-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (7-2)

Sunday, November 22nd --- U.S. Bank Stadium --- 4:25pm EST

NFL Week 11 Betting Line: MIN -1.0 (45)

The Packers have been automatic in this division for the past four years, dominating it with combined records of 46-17-1 SU. They have been an unstoppable offensive force with a defense that does just enough. These days, however, the wheels have completely ripped off the cheese wagon.

It all started in San Francisco during a weird 17-3 win where Green Bay didn’t seem great or terrible. People like me wondered why they couldn’t do more. The following week, they narrowly escaped St. Louis in a 24-10 win thanks to a costly pick by Nick Foles. They then allowed Phillip Rivers to post 503 passing yards in a 27-20 victory for Green Bay.

Simply put, there was something off about this team. Since then, they’ve lost three straight in a horrifying 0-3 SU and ATS run that’s included expected losses to Denver and Carolina and a completely unexpected upset to the Lions in Week 10. Their defense is getting chewed up at the worst times, and their offense can’t seem to get going no matter who’s on the field.

When you have a guy like Aaron Rodgers, these things aren’t supposed to happen. Blame the loss of Jordy Nelson all you want, but McCarthy and the coaching staff have had three months to adjust to his absence. There’s no threat of a rushing attack. They can’t get first downs. Their defense is a mess, and is getting run over to the tune of 116.2 yards per game on the ground.

Minnesota just beat a team that’s good at passing and bad at rushing when they played in Oakland this past weekend. This has all the earmarks of the same type of matchup, with the added bonus that the game’s at home for the Vikings.

The last three games have been eye sores for Packers fans, but it’s been brewing since Week 4. Sharps and handicappers have seen the blood in the water for a long time. Now the rest of the NFL does too.

It’s time that you do the same. This is a massive game for Peterson and the Vikings and they have all the tools to shock Green Bay in a pick ‘em. The defense for Minnesota has been outstanding, and has limited opponents to just 228.0 passing yards per game (8th best). Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have a ton of deadly options, and even worse, he has zero momentum and lacking confidence heading in to hostile territory.

Considering that this is the biggest game of Teddy Bridgewater’s career, I can’t expect a ton of points either way. The Vikings will rely on Peterson to crash the ball, and Green Bay will flicker with 3-and-outs all day long in a frustrating and futile day that will see few points from either team. For that reason, I’m endorsing the UNDER.

Don’t bank on Green Bay “just because”. Instead, invest in Minnesota because they’re not leaving any money on the table for their backers. A chance to seize the NFC North won’t slip through their fingers.

Week 11 NFL Betting Pick – Minnesota -1.0 (UNDER)

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