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Week 11 NFL Betting Free Picks – Which Backup QB’s Are Worth Backing?

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 11/21/2015 4:46:00 PM

My Week 11 NFL betting free picks are rife with a plague that can only be called “Backup-itis”. Seven games feature second string quarterbacks. Seven! The only way to cure this disease is to gamble on it and make money. The solution involves figuring out which quarterbacks are worth backing and which aren’t.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1pm EST)

I have no idea why anyone would put stock in the Eagles at this point. Everything about this team is mediocre, and I’d be shocked to see Mark Sanchez avoid mistakes against a front-seven that features Gerald McCoy ripping apart the weak offensive line of Philadelphia. There’s no chance in hell that Bradford plays, and even if he does, what can you possibly expect out of him with a separated shoulder?

The Bucs are not a sexy team, but they are finding ways to keep games close. They’ve posted a -5.1 point differential this season which helps explain why this line falls where it is. However, they’re also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 16-3-1 ATS in Week 11, along with 6-1 ATS when playing a team with a losing record. On top of all that…they’re playing Mark Sanchez.

Indianapolis Colts +5 over ATLANTA FALCONS (1pm EST)

Yes, Matt Hasselbeck is playing, but the Colts are 2-0 SU and ATS in his starts. Those games were against Jacksonville and Houston at the beginning of October, but the truth is that Indy looked a lot smoother because Hasselbeck can throw the ball properly. Everything in Indy’s offense has shown capability, they just haven’t executed well.

Andrew Luck’s injury explains a lot of what’s wrong with Indianapolis. There are no such excuses for what’s happening in Atlanta. They have dropped off a cliff as Kyle Shanahan scrambles to correct an offense that seemed explosive as all hell earlier this season. Atlanta’s brutal 0-5 ATS streak heading in to the bye week is worth gambling against, which is why the Colts find themselves as a strong take in Week 11 NFL betting free picks with a generous line.

Denver Broncos -1 over CHICAGO BEARS (1pm EST)

Chicago has a habit of sucking people in when they enjoy some hot streaks, which is exactly what’s happening right now as Jay Cutler prepares for a revenge game against the team that drafted him. The problem is that he’s facing a defense that still ranks out as the best overall unit in the NFL, with just 277.3 yards allowed per game and 18.7 points allowed.

People are abandoning ship on Denver because of Peyton Manning, but Brock Oweiler was drafted in the second round for a reason. The 6-foot-8 tower is capable, as he proved in clean up duties last weekend, and he’s surrounded by a talented offense that still has two of the best receivers in the NFL. The Bears have a bad defense. We know this.

Even with Fox and Cutler hosting their former teams, Denver remains a strong bet because of all the pieces in place. Cutler won’t have the room to throw against a defense that will once again have Aqib Talib at corner, and could have DeMarcus Ware back as well.

The biggest thing is that there’s no real way to prepare for Brock Osweiler. A lot of backups expose defenses in their first game as a starter because there’s no way to know what he’s going to do. Like Indy, the Broncos have had chances, but poor throws have doomed them. With a young arm under center attached to an understudy who has been in the wings for three years, there’s plenty of reasons to get excited about a Denver upset here.

I’m not sold on Chicago’s defense actually being bet-worthy. With Talib and an unknown at quarterback, Denver is still worth a look.

New York Jets -3 over HOUSTON TEXANS (1pm EST)

The Jets have been one of the biggest letdown bets in all of football at just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. That stretch also includes three losses. Now, Ryan Fitzpatrick’s hand has been fixed and the team has had extra time to mend all of their defensive miscues. There’s just no way that a team so stacked with defensive stars, and Todd Bowles at head coach, can be as unreliable as they’ve been.

That’s why it’ll probably be refreshing to see a yahoo like T.J. Yates. The backup for Brian Hoyer certainly seemed usable on Monday Night in a game that Cincinnati tried so hard to give away, but you can’t expect him to be of any value in Week 11 NFL betting free picks. Not with DeAndre Hopkins on Revis Island and most certainly not with Houston on a short week.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -1.0 over Green Bay Packers (4:25pm EST)

This game doesn’t fall under the pretenses of the article, but I couldn’t help but pile on to Green Bay’s problems. There’s a lot of reasons to just take the Vikings without blinking. They’re 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games. The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 attempts to cover the spread.

When it comes to Week 11 NFL betting picks, this one seems like a no-brainer. Green Bay’s offense is a complete disaster, and their defense isn’t much better. It won’t help that they’re matched up against Adrian Peterson and the top rushing game in the country. If Carolina, Denver and Detroit could put the clamps on Aaron Rodgers, Minnesota can as well. The Vikings rank 8th against the pass and allow the second fewest points of any team in the NFL. Those are stats you can take to the bank.

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