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Tough Sledding In Week 6 NFL Betting When It Comes To NFC

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 10/11/2015 8:24:32 AM

There are five NFC matchups this weekend that are tough to wrap your head around no matter how many spreadsheets you have for Week 6 NFL betting. Are the Cardinals overrated? Do the Eagles deserve a penny? Is Washington better than we think? Is New York? Let’s tackle these questions with some mini-previews of the big matchups in the NFC.

New Orleans Saints +6.5 over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1pm EST)

Few games in Week 6 NFL betting are as tough to gauge as this one, so when you can’t discern the matchup and the points are that big…you take the points.

The Eagles have played what feels like two competent quarters of football this entire season, and are coming off a loss to Kirk Cousins and Washington. They’re also not blowing anyone away offensively, with a lousy point differential of just -0.75 points per game after one month.

One of the reasons I’ve hated New Orleans traditionally is that they were overvalued. That’s not the case this year with no go-to receiver. What Sean Payton has always been good at it is understanding the personnel that he has and how best to use them. Sure, Brees doesn’t have a great arsenal of talent around him, but when has he outside of Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston’s best years?

Neither team has a betting trend leaning in their favor, but the road team is 4-1 ATS when the Saints play the Eagles. The easy thing to do is assume the Eagles and Chip Kelly are this menacing terminator. The gutsy play is the Saints as road dogs in Week 6 NFL betting.

ATLANTA FALCONS -7 over Washington Redskins (1pm EST)

Cincinnati and Atlanta are the two teams I’m betting blindly until told not to by my better instincts. I actually like what Washington is starting to do defensively, but the Falcons have so much momentum these days it’s impossible to leverage a play against them in Week 6 NFL betting. Invest in Julio Jones. It’s a very safe bet, even with a big spread.

St. Louis Rams +8 over GREEN BAY PACKERS (1pm EST)

The Packers had trouble generating a ton of yards or points against a San Francisco defense that shares a lot of similarities with St. Louis personnel wise. And the Rams have stumbled in to the best player in the 2015 NFL Draft in Todd Gurley, who steamrolled a stiff Cardinals’ defense last weekend.

The Rams have been on a slow burn all season long, going just 2-2 SU and ATS with up-and-down performances. But beating Seattle and Arizona, two of the better teams in the NFL, should draw you to them whenever they’re getting a massive amount of points like they are in Week 6 NFL betting.

Jeff Fisher is a notorious grinder when he has the running backs to do so, and the combination of Gurley and Mason can present some problems for the Packers front-seven. Unless it starts snowing in Green Bay this weekend all of a sudden, I absolutely love this spread for the underdog Rams.

Arizona Cardinals -4 over DETROIT LIONS (4:05pm EST)

I’ll give Arizona a bit of a pass from last week because St. Louis can be an upstart against their own division, but they’ll be able to see the Lions coming from a mile away. And so will gamblers. Detroit’s backers are fully aware that this is not a team to invest in at this time of year. The Lions are just 2-5 ATS when playing in October and are also 1-5 ATS after covering in the game before.

Arizona is going to slip every now and then, just like all good teams, and I’ll take them no matter what. They’re a bit more of a spot-play than Cincinnati and Atlanta right now, but in their Week 6 NFL betting matchup against Detroit, I’ll take the slim road favorite who is 10-4 ATS when travelling.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7 over San Francisco 49ers (8:30pm EST)

Colin Kaepernick travelling to New York for a prime time game? No thanks.

Listen, there’s a small faction of people out there who want to hope Kap can turn things around. Count me amongst them. I don’t openly root against young players who are still finding their feet in a league that can be cruel. But right now, there’s just no way you can trust the Niners. They’re 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games and those last three games have been atrocious blowouts with combined scores of 28-107.

ONE-HUNDRED-AND-SEVEN POINTS IN THREE GAMES.

As for New York, the best thing you can say about them is that they’ve been in every game they’ve been involved in this year, showing tons of fight against Dallas and Atlanta in the first two weeks, where they lost those games by an average of just -2.5 points against. They’ve since creamed Washington and Buffalo, two of the stronger defensive teams in the NFL, by average margins of +12.5 points.

Say what you want about Eli Manning, but the Giants are no joke when it comes to the spread at 3-1 ATS on the season and they should be your go-to chase or double-down play on Sunday night in Week 6 NFL betting.

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