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The Top-5 Early Game Free Picks For Week 6 NFL Betting

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 10/17/2015 11:07:28 PM

It is next to impossible to bet against the favorites in Week 6 NFL betting. There are certain stay-away games too, like Denver against Cleveland where the slow-releasing Josh McCown will be haunted by a fast front-seven from the Broncos. I’m also nervous about that Miami-Tennessee matchup for a bunch of off-field reasons.

There are, however, five games I absolutely love this week. Most of them are pretty run of the mill, but two of them take some serious guts. Let’s see what I’ve got cooking in Week 6 NFL betting!

NEW YORK JETS -6.0 over Washington Redskins (1pm EST)

At first glance this smells like a trap game. People are launching themselves at the Jets this week because they’re coming off a bye week with Sheldon Richardson also returning. Traditionally, New York has been a bad take coming off the bye week, going just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 years.

However, this Jets team has a radically different feel. Credit the coaching, the return of Revis Island and the additions of guys like Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. I know that taking advice that involves betting on Ryan Fitzpatrick is tough to ingest, but on the other side of the coin you have Kirk Cousins.

Betting on these two quarterbacks is like picking between a moldy sandwich or a bowl of soup with a floating turd in it. The difference? The Jets are also serving up a top-ranked defense that has allowed the fewest points against this season and a mindboggling +10.0 point differential on the year. And their skill positions are far better by every metric.

I like Washington, and people will be racing to take them after they nearly beat Atlanta, but at just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road trips and with a 1-7-2 ATS record in Week 6 NFL betting overall, I can’t possibly trust them.

Arizona Cardinals -3.5 over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

This is quite possibly the toughest game to call in Week 6 NFL betting for a lot of reasons. Arizona boasts one of the best offenses in the league, much to everyone’s surprise, with 38.0 points per game, and also tout the 5th best defense in terms of points allowed (18.0). So why take Pittsburgh?

You shouldn’t! Pittsburgh has been able to beat two bad teams in San Diego and Baltimore. Sure, they’re 7-1 ATS when playing winning teams at home and 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games overall, but the wheels have to fall off the bus some time.

Arizona has made it a habit to embarrass bad teams, and the only reason they’re 4-1 SU and ATS and not perfect this year is because they were caught off guard by how good Todd Gurley is in Week 4. Bet the travelling Cardinals hard in this one. It’s actually not as tough of a take as you might think.

Cincinnati Bengals -3.0 over BUFFALO BILLS

The Bills have completely cooled off thanks in large part to injuries. LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams, Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins are all injured. We all saw how Cincinnati adjusted to Seattle in the second half last week, killing a team that couldn’t run the ball at all. They’ll eviscerate Buffalo as tight favorites despite the overhanging theme of a letdown game overshadowing this contest.

Kansas City Chiefs +4.0 over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

I ranked Minnesota fairly high in my power rankings earlier this week, and I’m still not totally sure I should. At the same time, I’ve regularly bashed my head in to the wall for backing the Chiefs. So what am I thinking here?

If Kansas has any threat, it’s their front-seven and Minnesota feels like a one-trick pony of a team. They’ve had a couple layup matchups against Detroit, San Diego and a Denver team which can’t move the ball to save their lives.

Kansas City is without Jamaal Charles, and Charcandrick West slips in as the lead back. That fact in itself has the public bunching up Minnesota’s side of the Week 6 NFL betting line, but you should hold pause for a moment. The loss of Charles is massive, but it also streamlines the focus of a Kansas offense that has weapons in the secondary.

The Chiefs primarily play well at home, and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Minnesota is also 6-1 ATS when playing at home. As strange as it sounds, I like that extra point you’re getting off the natural home line. This wreaks of a game that will be tighter than people think.

Until we see Minnesota blowing the doors off opponents routinely, I’m not buying all-in just yet. Take a chance on Kansas and a passing game bolstered by Kelce and Maclin. They can keep this game closer than the oddsmakers would have you believe.

Chicago Bears +3.0 over DETROIT LIONS

Basically, everyone over the Lions who are a miserable 1-4 ATS this season and completely winless. There is nothing inherently special about Chicago, but they have some passing threats in the form of Forte and Bennett, and Detroit’s unwillingness to play defense is going to haunt them. I mean, this was a bad defense with Suh. It’s going to be exposed on a routine basis without him this year as it already has been.

Advocating a bet on Jay Cutler is hard enough, but there are some things I like about the Bears. At the very least, I can speak relatively positive about their situation and they have a way of being sneakily mediocre every year. The Lions are perhaps the worst team out there and you shouldn’t hesitate to cash in on their futility in Week 6 NFL betting.

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