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The Republican Presidential Nominees Prep for Dec. 15th Debate on CNN

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 12/15/2015 10:38:06 AM

Much has changed in the last month for the Republican Presidential nominees still hoping to separate themselves from what’s turned in to a muddled, and almost cannibalistic, race. The flurry of in-fighting will be televised once again, this time on CNN, when the candidates take the stage on December 15th at 8:30pm EST (7:30pm CT, 5:30pm PT).

And yes, we definitely have odds on politics in the forms of futures. With the Republican Party, Rubio still leads the race, but Trump is still king of the polls. Who can gain the most from a debate victory on Tuesday?

Donald Trump (+300 to be named Republican Presidential Nominee)

Let’s just get the most famous candidate out of the way. And no, there aren’t any zeroes missing from his listed odds above. Trump’s inflammatory comments concerning Muslims has been the lead headline in the media for what feels like weeks, and it’s with just cause. This will be the first time Trump responds to his comments on a national forum, and it will likely be the most intriguing focal point of the entire debate.

White House press secretary Josh Earnest had one of the most profound reactions to Trump’s stance on Muslims, saying, “What he said is disqualifying. And any republican who’s too fearful of the Republican base to admit it has no business serving as president either.”

Trump’s odds may seem absolutely unreasonable, but the feverish backlash to his remarks concerning Muslims has also had an inverse reaction with his stern supporters, who continue to stand behind the man. Trump’s still the runaway leader in the polls with 30.4 points in recent polls, experiencing a +5.8 point boost in the past month.

What Trump said seemed suicidal from a campaign standpoint, but believing that the billionaire turned Presidential candidate is too dumb to pivot around his contentious remarks is also short sighted. One of Trump’s trademarks is his ability to dig himself out of hot messes. He’ll enter Tuesday night’s scrum, fully prepared as always.

Marco Rubio (+140 to be named Republican Presidential Nominee)

Though well behind in recent polls, Rubio remains the favorite to win the Republican Presidential nomination. He very clearly won the last debate on CNBC, and the more exposure that Rubio gets, the clearer it will become that Rubio is about to start peaking at the right time. He has steadily climbed upwards in the polls and will continue to do so, especially with strong performances at the debates.

Jeb Bush (+640 to be named Republican Presidential nominee)

Bush’s odds are more reflective of his sweeping popularity and name-value but his support is starting to migrate. Bush has experienced a -2.2 point drop in the polls. His 3.6 points in the polls suggest that the former Governor of Florida is well on his way to dropping out of the race. Is there any hope for the third Bush?

Ben Carson (+5000)

Carson recently just threatened to leave the Republicans due to what he perceives as a rigged system. I’m sure it has nothing to do with his -10.8 drop in the polls over the past month.

Ted Cruz (+295)

This is perhaps where things get the most interesting. Cruz has tactically played himself away from a head-on collision against Trump for the past year, voicing his support for the man instead.

But tensions have started to boil over this weekend as word escaped from Cruz’s camp that he expects Carson and Trump’s campaigns to experience a correction. “Gravity will bring those campaigns down, and the lions share of those supporters will come to us.”

Cruz has major support from the oil industry, and will be a primo target as Trump attempts to take down another candidate who is already beginning to nip at his heels. Support for Cruz has jumped from 6.7 two months ago to 15.6, surpassing both Carson and Rubio.

How Cruz handles any offensive attack from Trump in the upcoming debate is an anticipated moment, and one that will undoubtedly define the rising candidate’s odds as a Republican Presidential nominee.

You can bet on our political futures here, and don’t forget to tune in to the Republican Party Debate this Tuesday, December 15th at 8pm, live on CNN.


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