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The Best NFL Week 10 Bets – Rams, Chiefs Getting Respect From Oddsmakers

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 11/15/2015 7:43:22 AM

Finding the best NFL Week 10 bets is by no means an easy task when you’re glancing at the board. Green Bay seems like a great take at -11.5 over the woeful Lions, but Detroit’s coming off a bye week and the Packers are reeling after two losses. Washington also could be a feisty take against a New Orleans team that seems allergic to the concept of defense.

So as usual, I’ve sifted through the bounty of games and determined my five favorite bets for NFL Week 10. Do with these as you will, exploring teasers and parlays. Enjoy and good luck!

Carolina Panthers -4.5 over TENNESSEE TITANS (1pm EST)

I’m not buying that Tennessee has discovered how to be good at football just because they beat up a Saints defense that can’t stop anyone. The unusually tight line actually gives Carolina a better chance to grind up the ground, and the clock, while holding on to a decent lead.

People have been giving away money by leaning away from the Panthers all season. Let’s cut that habit and take a team that’s gone 5-1 ATS when travelling and 20-9-1 ATS when playing a losing team. By the way, the Titans are 1-7-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning road record.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -2 over Dallas Cowboys (1pm EST)

The Bucs are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games, beating Atlanta and Jacksonville while losing in the last minute to both the Giants and Redskins. Tampa’s tempered and measured offense takes its shots and is suffering the growing pains that usually come with a new, rookie quarterback.

The big question mark is Tampa’s defensive numbers, which suggest that they’re a half-decent unit with just 349 yards allowed per game (11th), yet they allow the third most points against with 28.9. Dez Bryant is looming large.

However, betting against Tampa in this game requires you to really believe that Matt Cassell can string together competent, back-to-back performances, and that’s a jagged pill to swallow.

One of the reasons that the Bucs are getting lumped in amongst the best NFL Week 10 bets is Tampa’s 5-1 ATS record when playing a team with a losing record, and no team has been better at figuring out how to give away games than the Dallas Cowboys this season.

Chicago Bears +7.5 over ST. LOUIS RAMS (1pm EST)

The easy part in this matchup is to stand behind the Rams who have been a great home team this season with a 3-1 ATS record at their dome, but that overlooks a few important facts. The biggest is that despite Todd Gurley’s emergence as the best running back in the league, Nick Foles leads a passing attack that ranks dead last with just 177.1 aerial yards per game.

You can’t expect the Rams to crack open a huge gap in this game and maintain it. Jay Cutler goes right up against the 4th best secondary in the league, and will have to deal with a pass rush featuring Robert Quinn, but he has some weapons around him that he hasn’t necessarily had all season. I love the Bears here as a backdoor cover in the best NFL Week 10 bets. You can bet on the Jeffrey-Cutler combo having a big impact.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +4.5 over Denver Broncos (4:25pm EST)

Anytime you feel like you can take a chance on the Chiefs, they let you down. Any gambler who has ventured down that road, as I have a few times, knows what it’s like to get burned by this group of letdown specialists.

Still, no other team across the landscape of this league has a bigger desire to beat Denver than Kansas City. They have the pieces, and Denver is perhaps at their weakest without some key players on both sides. Talib and Ware will be out, and Sanders has a bum ankle. This is the time for Kansas to strike a crippling blow in their division rival. Timing is everything, which is why taking a risk with Kansas City this weekend logs as one of the best NFL Week 10 bets this Sunday.

If they can’t do it here, Kansas should never be considered a playoff contender. I’m willing to take a chance and believe that they have what it takes to take that pivotal, next step. The last time they met, Kansas nearly earned their first victory over Peyton’s Broncos, losing thanks to a costly fumble in the last minute of the game. This time, they’ll see the effort the entire way through.

New England Patriots -7 over NEW YORK GIANTS (4:25pm EST)

I’m not falling for the whole “Giants own the Patriots” thing. New England is just too damn good. Honestly, as I said in the Power Rankings earlier this week, the Patriots in their biggest possible revenge game, during a campaign that’s been nothing but vengeance, are a no-brainer.

The backdoor cover is terrifying given the presence of Odell Beckham Jr., but the Patriots can run away with this score and bury the ghosts of Super Bowl’s past. Let’s keep in mind that the Giants are the worst passing defense in the league and the Patriots are the best passing attack that exists. You can go with the Giants if you want, but the Patriots are one of my favorite best bets in NFL Week 10 given the context of this matchup.

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