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Sunday and Monday Night Football Bets – Bet the Better Coach

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 11/22/2015 2:15:21 PM

The pair of prime time games we get to enjoy in Sunday and Monday Night Football betting feature four playoff bound teams. They also star four of the biggest names in head coaching that roam the sidelines. Belichick and Bruce Arians are Coach of the Year level guys. Rex Ryan and Marvin Lewis are players’ coaches. Which ones are worth your money? Hint: it’s the guys who win awards.

ARIZONA CARDINALS -4.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday Night)

Are you seriously going to consider betting on Andy Dalton in prime time twice in a row? There’s a chance that the Bengals just had a bad game. After all, including the loss to Houston, they’re a ridiculous 7-1-1 ATS on the season.

The problem it’s hard to get the stink of that last game out of our minds. I mean, this is Houston we’re talking about. Cincinnati still grades out as excellent in 2015, but there’s also the idea that they’ve been catching teams at the right time. If we go backwards, we’re looking at them playing against Johnny Football, Pittsburgh without Le’Veon, an injury depleted Bills team and Seattle without Marshawn Lynch. That’s a lot of lucky breaks.

Every team needs some luck to be good. Every team. But Cincinnati has a reputation of letting their fans and backers down in big games. The Dalton group hasn’t won a playoff game since he arrived. That’s why they’re an extremely questionable play in Sunday Night Football betting.

The Cardinals are showing the type of resiliency and composure that Cincinnati lacked last weekend. What they did last Sunday Night was the opposite of what Cincinnati displayed. Arizona is as diligent as they come.

I don’t believe that Cincinnati can find the confidence that made them an undefeated team halfway through the season, as they travel on a short week. All the trends are strong for both teams, but the biggest one that rides in Arizona’s favor is that they look and feel like a real playoff team that has the offensive diversity to beat you in a number of ways. That’s a big reason that Arizona has gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games, and why Bruce Arians has been a godfather to gamblers who trust in solid coaching dynamics.

Also, if you’re looking for a really big reason to side with the Cardinals in Sunday Night Football Betting, it’s Carson Palmer playing at a new peak in a revenge game against his former team. By the way, things ended really badly between these two. Palmer will be out for blood, and he has the weapons to cut Marvin Lewis deep.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -7 over Buffalo Bills (Monday Night)

Buffalo is perhaps the hardest team to really gauge. When healthy, they seem as if they’re as good as anyone. They trampled Miami and were able to outlast a tough Jets team on the road last Thursday, meaning that they also have extended time to prepare for the biggest game of their season. The problem is that when they’re bad, they lose to Jacksonville.

New England has been the perfect team all season long, but they’ve been far from a perfect bet. A 5-3-1 ATS record is still nothing to shake a stick at, especially when two of those spread losses were backdoor covers. Against spreads of -7.0 or -7.5, the Patriots are just 0-2-1 ATS this season as well.

But the Pats are also flying high after beating the Giants. Had Brady not thrown a bad pass behind his intended target, the Patriots likely would’ve covered against the Giants. It seems like I’m making excuses for the Patriots, but these are tangible x-factors in Monday Night Football betting.

New England is 6-4 ATS when playing Buffalo, and crushed them 40-32 in a game that was 34-13 at one point. I know that you want to get crusty with Tyrod Taylor, or you think that Rex Ryan’s familiarity with the Patriots gives him the upper hand. It doesn’t. It never has.

The Bills have some upset potential, but I’m not convinced that Taylor is good enough to give a tactician like Belichik a run for his (or your) money. The absences of Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis can and will be shored up by Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola, the former of which had a monster game with 7 catches, 113 yards and a touchdown the last time these teams met.

There’s a reason that this line is so high, but the Patriots remain the smarter pick in Monday Night Football betting. Do not underestimate the importance of them making a statement on prime time.


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