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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview – Arizona vs. Seattle Week 10

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 11/15/2015 3:59:41 PM

There is a strange notion that teams coming out of a bye week can revolutionize themselves over past troubles. If that’s the case, there’s still hope for the free falling Seattle Seahawks who have struggled mightily after consecutive visits to the Super Bowl. Are they worth the plunge as a Sunday Night Football betting favorite?

The question might actually be if the Seahawks deserve to be favorites at all. There are a few positive things here worth pointing out, like Seattle’s impressive 4-1 SU and ATS record when playing Arizona and their 5-1-1 ATS run in the last 7 games against NFC west opponents. But, in all fairness, the oddsmakers just slapped this matchup with a natural home line. There’s very little faith being placed on Seattle, bye week or not.

Unfortunately, the reality of the current rendition of the Seahawks outweighs the historical trends this team has put forth. Their passing game is one of the worst in the league, ranking 28th with just 213.6 yards per game. Russell Wilson has yet to throw a 300+ yard game, and has just one performance where he scored more than one touchdown. He’s yet to be truly effective on the ground as well, with zero rushing touchdowns this season.

It also doesn’t help the Sunday Night Football case for the home bound Seahawks that they’re just 2-5-1 ATS on the season, ranking as one of the worst bets in all of football. At some point, Wilson has to suffer the blame for this as does the offensive side of the coaching staff. It’s inexcusable that Seattle is this bad at scoring, ranking just 24th in the NFL with a measly 20.9 points per game.

All of this is Wilson’s fault. He has had immense difficulty elevating his play this season, even after forcing a massive contract extension that kicks in next season. Wilson has always been a guy that extends plays with his feet, picks up almost miraculous big plays and leans on Lynch along with an all-world defense. This year, those big plays have been non-existent and Lynch has been suffocated by opposing defenses.

Arizona Cardinals (6-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (4-4)

Sunday, November 15th --- Century Link Stadium --- 8:30pm EST

Sunday Night Football Betting Line: SEA -3 (43.5)

If Arizona has been good at anything this season, it’s consistency against the run. They allowed one big game against Todd Gurley, when nobody knew if he was going to be as dominant as he’s become, and that’s really the only negative against this Cards defense. They’re 3rd in total yards allowed and 7th in scoring.

At the same time, Arizona has consistently ranked as one of the best scoring teams in the NFL with 32.9 points per game behind a balanced attack led by the rejuvenated Carson Palmer and Chris Johnson. They’ve had their letdown games against Pittsburgh and St. Louis, but outside of that the Cardinals have been absolute monsters.

This Sunday Night Football betting pick eventually boils down to two contradicting lines of thought. Either you believe that Seattle can break out of their funk against a division rival, or you don’t. Let’s keep in mind that Seattle has only breached the 30-point mark once this season, and that was in the first game of the year.

Both defenses are stubborn and stiff, but the Cardinals have more outs to lean on, giving rise to the idea that they’re a stronger play. Carson and Johnson haven’t faced a top flight defense all season aside from St. Louis in Week 4 which is one of the reasons to bet against them.

But can you really count on Wilson to find the magic that propelled this team to the Super Bowl twice in a row? Arizona can lock down on Lynch, who will still be massively productive, and teams have learned how to contain Russell’s running attack.

A lot of Seattle truthers out there will counter with Seattle’s defense, but this group has been out of sorts all year regardless of personnel. Some of the better teams from this season have dropped a huge amount of points on the Legion of Boom. Cincinnati, Carolina, St. Louis and Green Bay averaged 28.8 points on this supposedly impenetrable defense. Knowing that, how do you think Arizona’s third ranked scoring offence will do?

Part of the explanation is that Seattle has become all too predictable on both sides of the ball. There’s no other way to explain their offensive short comings against teams like Detroit and Dallas. And the step down from former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to Kris Richard has been blatantly obvious. That right there is the source of most of Seattle’s problems, though most people will point to injuries or hold outs.

The fact remains that when two great defenses clash, you have to opt in with the team that has a more dynamic offence. Arizona makes everyone pay for disrespecting Chris Johnson and Carson Palmer has been a revelation this season just as he was last year. A lot of gamblers will put faith in the idea that Seattle “needs this win”, but guess what? So does Arizona.

Thankfully for you, I’ve put more thought in to my Sunday Night Football betting preview than the oddsmakers have in this line. Take the road dogs heavy with a lean on that low hanging OVER which seems easily crossable considering Arizona’s defensive penchant for putting up points off of turnovers.

Sunday Night Football Betting Pick: Arizona +3.0 (OVER)

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