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NFL Week 2 Betting Lines – Taking A Look At The Nail-Biting Matchups

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 9/20/2015 7:31:39 AM

The NFL Week 2 betting board is still scattered with a range of games that don’t really require much guess work. You’ll see lines like New Orleans as a 10-point favorite against Tampa and totally understand why (read: Jameis Winston), while feasting on that shallow Arizona line as they visit the Bears. A handful of other games, however, are a bit tougher to call so we’re going to break down the top-5 nail biters of NFL Week 2 betting. Home team in caps, lines subject to change and all of these matchups are for Sunday’s slate. Good luck!

San Francisco 49ers +5.5 over PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1pm EST)

Those of us that were willing to nail San Francisco’s coffin shut early on seem like pretty dumb people right now. Granted, that Monday Night performance was brilliant, but it also came with some caveats. They were opening a new stadium, laying in those awesome uniforms and were matched up against a quarterback who was going to be overwhelmed given the circumstances.

You can’t rattle Ben Roethlisberger…but it’s hard to see Pittsburgh really blowing this game wide open. All of their offensive weaknesses play right in to San Francisco’s strengths. The Steelers have a shaky offensive line that can get devoured by the Niners, and Roethlisberger still doesn’t have a reliable deep threat to take the heat off of Antonio Brown.

Pittsburgh is still 5-2 ATS when playing at home, but the Niners travel extremely well historically at 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games. And against this weak Pittsburgh defence, I actually prefer the legs of Kaepernick and Carlos Hyde by a 6-point mile.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 over Detroit Lions (1pm EST)

Speaking of the Vikings, it’s easy to cool off on the hype that surrounded them in preseason after they were basically blanked by San Francisco. But the Niners did the one thing you have to do against a young quarterback who’s still figuring things out. Bridgewater will have A LOT more room against a Lions team that just got torched by the Chargers through the air.

This NFL Week 2 betting line pick is also bolstered by some cozy trends, like Detroit’s 1-6 ATS record in their last 7 games along with their 2-7-1 ATS record over their last 10 games in Week 2 (it’s just never been a good time for them). Minnesota is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, while going 11-4 ATS following a straight up loss.

Bridgewater was a beast at home for this Vikings team, and you can’t blame him for coming out shell shocked on the road, in prime time against a grizzly defence that was lights out. He’ll have a lot more room to make some magic happen as the Lions continue to take steps in the wrong direction. Besides, betting against Detroit just seems like a smart, weekly decision at this point under Matt Stafford.

New England Patriots +1 over BUFFALO BILLS (1pm EST)

I’ll admit that I love this Buffalo defence, but the Patriots don’t lose these games. They’re 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Buffalo, while 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 meetings overall. I’m also not going to bet on Tyrod Taylor over Tom Brady. Not now. Probably not ever.

San Diego Chargers +3.5 over CINCINNATI BENGALS (1PM EST)

It’s virtually impossible for me to draw anything from a Bengals win over the Raiders, but they’ve usually been a great home bet at 15-5-1 ATS in their own building. The problem with this NFL Week 2 betting line is that it underestimates how good San Diego is. The Chargers aren’t only 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against winning teams, they’re fully healthy and have a full arsenal of weapons for Rivers to employ. He didn’t even need a running game to beat up the Lions last week.

I still can’t bring myself to trust the Bengals despite the fact that the majority of the metrics I have tell me to. Their defence sucks, and Andy Dalton isn’t going to have his way with San Diego’s defence the same way he did with Oakland’s. This may be the toughest game to pick on the board overall, and in those instances I usually shade with the better quarterback especially if he’s getting points.

Dallas Cowboys +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4:25PM EST)

That NFL Week 2 betting line seems absolutely ridiculous. Was it me or did Tony Romo fashion a fourth quarter comeback without Dez Bryant last week? The Eagles remain a sexy pick because of a late game push against an Atlanta team that’s not very good defensively. People love Chip Kelly, but the Cowboys are still great from top-to-bottom regardless of their rotating running-back carousel and the injury to Bryant.

You should be more than willing to toss some cheddar behind a Dallas team that’s been together for years over Chip Kelly’s harebrained idea of what an NFL team is supposed to look like. The Eagles can be deadly if they can figure out how to make all those moving parts fit together. Too bad for them, Dallas is already at that point.

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