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NFL Week 12 Betting Picks – Lots of Great Road Dogs To Feast On

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 11/29/2015 12:35:02 PM

As you gorge on Turkey and stuffing this weekend, be sure to leave room for my best NFL week 12 betting picks. The oddsmakers have cornered some home teams with unfavorable numbers, and the afternoon doozy between Pittsburgh and Seattle is sure to be a gravy train if you lean the right way. Here’s where your money should be going. Thank me later.

Houston Texans -3 over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

(Sunday, 1pm EST)

You know what I like about T.J. Yates? It doesn’t matter. The Saints defense has made everyone on god’s green and glorious earth look like a super hero team. Yates may not be a world destroying quarterback, but he’s smart enough to consistently throw it up for DeAndre Hopkins who can make plays like the best of them. I have no love or patience for New Orleans anymore.

By the way, since the Texans were split open by Ryan Tannehill (of all people), do you know how many points they’ve allowed? Would you be shocked if I said 9.6 points against in three games right? With Houston’s defense rejuvenated by a resurgent J.J. Watt, the Texans are a great take in NFL Week 12 betting picks. Look for them to keep their unfathomable 4-1 ATS streak heading in the right direction.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0 over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

(Sunday, 1pm EST)

After watching Matt Hasselbeck play his age last weekend, I’m not at all convinced that he can salvage the Colts’ season. It’s a fine line. Some times veterans can find the rhythm that made them great in years prior. Other times, they can’t. With and without Hasselbeck, Indy has somehow become a reliable bet again with a 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS run in the last 3 games. In general, however, there’s too much uncertainty with what’s happening with the Colts.

What I like about Tampa is that they’re 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. They’re also flying high with better receiving options for Jameis Winston. As long as Tampa has some semblance of momentum, I’m pretty high on them as a strong play so I’m taking the points in this particular NFL Week 12 betting pick as Tampa vies for a wild card spot in the NFC.

Buffalo Bills +4 over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

(Sunday, 1pm EST)

You want to know why the Bills are such big underdogs on the road in Kansas City? Me neither. Rex Ryan’s defense can do everything they accomplished against a New England team that is built the same way as the Chiefs. They’re also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. I like Kansas City, who are 4-0 ATS in the last month and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games, but I don’t like what the loss of West does to their offense. Spencer Ware is just like Kniles Davis. He merely picked up big numbers in garbage time, and he’s going nowhere fast against Buffalo.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

(Sunday, 4:25pm EST)

The marquee showdown of the afternoon is Pittsburgh against Seattle, and you’re more than welcome to bet Seattle if you’d like. At 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games, Seattle remains one of the worst bets in all of football and Pittsburgh is fully healthy. Your worries about the absence of Bell should be shored up by DeAngelo Williams by now. This is a huge statement game for both teams, and Pittsburgh has been defiant all season long while Seattle has been so poor that they’re not remotely worth your consideration in NFL Week 12 betting picks.

Everything about Seattle is hot. They’re 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall with a mixed up personnel, and 5-1 ATS when playing on the road. The mystique of Seattle’s hot home crowd is dead. When this team gets behind, that front running crowd goes silent. And the legion of boom haven’t done a thing this season that’s been noteworthy. The Seahawks are just 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against winning teams, which has a built in 0-3-1 ATS record when playing at home against winning road teams.

Do not trust Seattle in this game under any circumstances you pull out of thin air.

New England Patriots -2.5 over DENVER BRONCOS

(Sunday, 8:30pm EST)

One of the x-factors of this game is going to be the weather, with frigid temperatures already assaulting Mile High. The good news is that Tom Brady is used to this. The part we’re actually not sure of is if Brock Osweiler is ready.

You can make all sorts of assumptions that Brock is prepared for the Patriots in prime time. He’s been in the wings underneath Manning for a considerable amount of time. Maybe he’s played in cold weather games back in college. What I do know is that Brock has done nothing for over three years up until the last two weeks, where he narrowly beat Chicago.

That’s why I’m not going to bother slinging points about Denver’s defense, Brady’s resolve or the talent on either side of the ball. They all have play makers. Their offensive lines are garbage. The two major differences in this Week 12 NFL betting pick are that New England is 5-1 ATS against Denver, and we have no idea how Osweiler will react to the biggest game of his life.

Bet the guy who has been there before and continues to get it done with a line that makes New England a tasty treat to wrap your Thanksgiving day shenanigans.


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