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NFL Thanksgiving Day Free Picks

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 11/25/2015 9:51:49 PM

Despite three NFL Thanksgiving Day games that I’m obviously thankful for, I’ll tell you what I’m not at all thankful for this Thanksgiving – a lack of real betting lines. Two of these games are basically pick ‘ems, while the prime time feature has a line so big that it’s giving me the meat sweats. So what are you to do? Read on and find out, of course.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

DETROIT LIONS -2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (OVER 46)

Thursday, November 26th --- 12:30pm EST

As you can guess, Detroit’s record in NFL Thanksgiving Day games is…not great. They’re 2-7 SU in the last 9 games played on Turkey Day. They have, however, won and covered in those last two games. So there’s that!

The good news is that Detroit and Philadelphia are currently barreling in two completely different directions. The Lions are coming off of two gigantic wins, while Philadelphia has been outscored by a -8.0 point differential over their last four games, which includes beating the Cowboys 33-27.

If there’s any team out there that makes bad teams look amazing, it’s the Philadelphia Eagles. An overtime win against Dallas, and two terrible losses to Tampa and Miami in consecutive weeks have dropped Philly to just 1-3 SU and ATS in those same four games.

I’m not saying that Detroit is a better team than Philadelphia, but if Jameis Winston can unleash hell on the Eagles’ secondary, Matt Stafford can do some hefty damage in his own right. Right now, I just don’t trust Philadelphia to really prove that they’re here to compete. I think this team is halfway to giving up on Chip Kelly.

They might be there already.

The reason you take the OVER is because you don’t know whether Detroit’s defense is going to be the lion tamers they’ve been in the last two weeks, or the revolving door they were for the eight weeks prior. Plus cheering for touchdowns as you guzzle mid-day beers is the best.

Carolina Panthers +1 over DALLAS COWBOYS (UNDER 45.5)

Thursday, November 26th --- 4:30pm EST

Oh be still my beating heart! Cam Newton taking on Tony Romo? This game is tantalizing from all angles. Romo looked as vigilant as ever last weekend in a win over Miami, while Carolina decimated Washington 44-16. The only wrinkle that makes this game even more intriguing is that Greg Hardy is playing against his former team.

He doesn’t look like a guy who would hold a grudge, right?

In any case, Carolina is the most logical play here for so many reasons. They’re 4-0 ATS on the road this season, 5-0 ATS when playing the NFC and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. At no point has it been a good idea to bet against Carolina this season.

The biggest reason to bet against Dallas? Tony Romo playing on a super short week with a rusty shoulder. That’s all I’ve got. Other than that, Dallas is a formidable team that could very well win this game and run the table the rest of the way.

I’m simply more inclined to support the team that’s been running the table all season long.

The UNDER is the better play for this NFL Thanksgiving Day matchup simply because of how vicious and unforgiving both defenses can be. And yes, you use the word “unforgiving” to describe any defense that features Greg Hardy.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -8 over Chicago Bears (OVER 45)

Thursday, November 26th --- 8:30pm EST

Well this line seems way too big. Or does it? My first inclination is to get behind Jay Cutler and that huge point cushion, especially with Matt Forte reportedly coming back from injury. But the issue is that the Bears still don’t have Alshon Jeffrey. When he’s healthy, Jeffrey is an absolute, one-man wrecking crew. The drop off from Jeffrey to anyone else on the roster is immense. With him sidelined yet again, I just can’t endorse Chicago.

Green Bay is by no means a sturdy play here, but they do happen to own Chicago. The Packers are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games when playing the Bears, which helps explain why this line is so big. Rodgers and James Jones rekindled their unlikely bromance last weekend against Minnesota, and that should be enough to keep this offense trending in a favorable direction which is why they’re the better play overall in a game that seems too easy to take the underdog.

You also can’t bet a cover with a line that big and hammer the UNDER at the same time. It’s a nightmare from a betting angle. I don’t think the Bears are lifeless either. Last weekend, they simply ran in to one of the better defenses in the league. The Bears will have their shots, but Green Bay will tear this NFL Thanksgiving Day game open sooner rather tha

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