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NFL Football: The 4 Best Super Bowl Props

Posted by Stan Jenkins on 1/30/2015 10:36:08 AM

The Super Bowl is just about here. You’re going to be inundated with commentary and analysis on television and in the newspapers this week. What propositions could be very interesting?

1 – The Team To Score First Wins The Game Or Loses The Game

Odds:

Wins game -172

Loses game +132

This is so intriguing because the first score of a game could just as easily mean nothing or mean everything. It all depends on the circumstances under which a first score occurs. A year ago, the fact that the Denver Broncos surrendered points on the very first snap of the game clearly rattled them for the rest of Super Bowl XLVIII against the Seattle Seahawks. What also influenced the outcome of that game relative to the first score is that the safety given up by the Broncos was so embarrassing. On one play, the feel of the game changed. A Seattle team that was very young at a lot of positions immediately received a boost of confidence and a belief that it could win the game. Denver was never able to reverse or undo the effects of that play and what it did for both teams and their emotional states. If a first score is a humiliating safety or a very impressive touchdown drive, it might mean that it will point to the winner. If a first score is a field goal, it’s probably not going to mean much at all.

2 – No Two-Point Conversion Is Attempted

Odds: -234

The need for a two-point conversion is based on the scoring pattern of the game and the margin on the scoreboard at the time a two-point conversion is considered. It’s fairly obvious that in the first two and a half quarters of an NFL game, you’re just not going to see a two-point conversion attempted. It’s not until the later part of the third quarter that you might see a team go for two after a touchdown. Let’s say New England is leading Seattle by 16 with one minute left in the third quarter. If Seattle gets two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions, it would tie. Therefore, the Seahawks might try a two-pointer to see if they can get within eight points and therefore need only one successful possession to tie.

If you think that a game will have more touchdowns than field goals, especially in the first half, you’d probably want to bet no here. It’s only when multiple field goals are kicked that you get scores which lend themselves to going for two late in a game.

3 – The Game Will Go To Overtime Or Not

Odds:

OT +610

No OT -1060

Keep in mind that no Super Bowl has ever gone to overtime. If you want to bet against something happening, this is a pretty good place to either start or finish.

4 – Special Teams or Defensive TD

Odds:

Yes +148

No -193

The Seattle Seahawks got an interception return and a kickoff return for a touchdown a year ago in the Super Bowl. Can they repeat just one of those or do something similar? They could. On the other hand, would you expect Tom Brady to throw a pick-six or have Russell Wilson throw a bunch of interceptions following his four-INT showing against Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game? It’s a tough call.

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