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NFL Betting Power Rankings – Week 4

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 10/3/2015 10:30:03 PM

Well, we’re about a month in to the season, so it’s time to start doing some power rankings! Since I’m a guy that writes about betting, and I work for a site that’s used for sports betting, then this power rankings is going to revolve around – you guessed it – betting!

You’ll get the idea as you read through. It’s not necessarily which teams are the best overall winners, but which teams are routinely covering and making their backers some money. Things are choppy at the beginning of the season, and this year is far from an exception.

Just a heads up: writing something this long makes me go absolutely insane so I start cracking jokes that I’m pretty sure are funny. Let’s do it!

1. Green Bay Packers (3-0 SU and ATS)

I love you Jamaal Charles, but try not to steal the taunt of the best player in the game while his team is smashing yours. Speaking of which, that Jordy Nelson injury is really slowing down the Packers, isn’t it?

Next Game: Green Bay -7 at San Francisco

2. New England Patriots (3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS)

By all accounts, the Patriots are the best team in the league. But they let Antonio Brown get a garbage time touchdown in the season opener, and are 2-1 ATS. Expect Green Bay and New England to battle all season long for the number-one spot on this list because it’s a mess from here on in. An absolute, freaking mess.

Next Game: BYE

3. Arizona Cardinals (3-0 SU and ATS)

If you had bet “The Arizona Cardinals would lead the league in points scored by Week 4”, I’d probably assume you were Biff from Back to the Future II.

Next Game: St. Louis Rams at Arizona -7.0

4. Atlanta Falcons (3-0 SU and ATS)

Former head coach Mike Smith must seem like the girlfriend that the Atlanta Falcons dated for far too long. They lost four playoff games with him at the helm for seven years, and won zero. Dan Quinn’s been in town for three minutes and the Falcons are already one of the most exciting offenses in football.

Next Game: Houston at Atlanta -6

5. Denver Broncos (3-0 SU and ATS)

Denver might be the least friendly atmosphere for running-backs. They chewed up and spat out Knowshon Moreno, who broke down shortly after leaving for Miami. They drafted Montee Ball, who’s now out of the league just two years later. C.J. Anderson is now averaging 2.3 yards per carry.

You don’t think that’s a big deal? Well the Broncos are the third-worst offensive team in terms of generating yards. Fortunately they have the best, overall defense in the league. But yeah, this whole “Peyton Manning can’t feel his elbows thing”, or whatever it is, is a big deal when you don’t know what a good RB looks like.

Next Game: Minnesota at Denver -7.0

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS)

I love it when analysts say stuff like, “Big Ben couldn’t have gone down at a worse time.” He totally could have. He could be hurt right before the playoffs. He could be hurt right before the season starts. He could be hurt the week before. There’s no such thing as a good time for your most important player to get hurt.

Next Game: Baltimore -3.0 at Pittsburgh

7. Cincinnati Bengals (3-0 SU and ATS)

And I’m on to Cincinnati, a team that is so baffling to me that I can’t even begin to comprehend them. The thing about betting Dalton and the Bengals is that they establish these crazy trends early on, and then people refuse to believe in them like they’re seeing red come up on a roulette wheel a billion times in a row. Two years ago, for example, they were the best home team in all of NFL sports betting.

Why am I bringing this up? Because they were 3-0 SU and ATS last year until their fourth game of the season (in Week 5) when they were mauled by the Patriots on Monday Night.

They’re next two games are at home against a Kansas City team I also can’t figure out, and a Seattle team that still hasn’t proven anything more than that they can beat the Bears.

So what do you do? You bet on red until it stops coming up.

Next Game: Kansas City at Cincinnati -4.0

8. Carolina Panthers (3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS)

Yeah, I know. What the hell am I supposed to do here? Cam Newton and the Panthers are undefeated and have usually been a decent betting team overall. And these are the defending NFC South Champions here! Show some respect!

Next Game: Carolina -3.0 at Tampa

9. Buffalo Bills (2-1 SU and ATS)

10. New York Jets (2-1 SU and ATS)

Yup, we live in a world where it might be a good idea to bet on the Jets and Bills. I’m pretty sure that’s a sign of the apocalypse. You think that’s weird, just wait until you get a load of the next team on my list…

Next Game: NYJ -2.5 vs Miami (London)

Next Game: NYG at Buffalo -5.5

11. Oakland Raiders (2-1 SU and ATS)

I’m not even kidding!!! Again, this is a list that ranks good betting performances more than anything. It’s obvious that the Oakland Raiders can score on offense with exciting talents like Murray and Cooper. But do you know what they can’t do? Stop anyone from scoring! The Raiders rank 28th with 28.7 points allowed and dead last in total yards surrendered. You know what that makes them? The best OVER bet in the entire NFL.

Congratulations, Oakland Raiders! You’re finally good for something other than a few laughs!

Next Game: Oakland -3.0 at Chicago

12. Dallas Cowboys (2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS)

How excited are you to see the Cowboys without Romo visit the Saints without Brees? Have you set your PVR’s yet?! Have you cleared your social calendar for Sunday night???

Next Game: Dallas at New Orleans

13. Seattle Seahawks (1-2 SU and ATS)

You want to find out how good Russell Wilson really is? Take away Marshawn Lynch. Hamstrings can be season killers for any skill position, and if Lynch can’t go against Detroit, we’re going to see if Wilson is really a quarterback who can lead his team, or a guy who has been surrounded by surreal talent all this time.

Oh, you think that’s insane to suggest given his back-to-back Super Bowls? Mark Sanchez went to back-to-back conference championships surrounded by similar surroundings. There. I said it.

Next Game: Detroit at Seattle -10.0 (Monday)

14. Minnesota Vikings (2-1 SU and ATS)

Look at the list of teams below the Vikings and tell me that you’d put any other team up here. This isn’t as easy as it looks. Let’s keep in mind one thing: Minnesota was a barnstorming betting team at the tail end of last season when expectations were super low on them. Guess where expectations for them are now? Yup! Super low! Get excited!

Next Game: Minnesota at Denver -7.0

15. Indianapolis Colts (1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS)

I…I don’t know what to say to be honest. This team should be winless. For the life of me, I want to thrust them farther down the rankings like they deserve, but the Colts have been one of the sturdiest bets in the NFL for three straight seasons. It’s one thing to get chased down by Mariota, but if they let Bortles do the same, that AFC South is wide open…and not in a good way.

Next Game: Jacksonville at Indianapolis -9.5

16. San Diego Chargers (1-2 SU and ATS)

The Chargers have a pretty embarrassing offensive line…and somehow the Chargers are producing 402.0 yards per game on offense. All hail Philip Rivers, who has learned what most of us already know – feeding Keenan Allen targets usually results in good things.

Next Game: Cleveland at San Diego -6.5

17. Tennessee Titans (1-2 SU and ATS)

A reminder for teams looking forward to the quarterback class of 2016: if you’re forced to make a decision between an articulate class citizen who was wildly productive in college versus a guy who has trouble stringing sentences together…you go with the guy who can string sentences together.

Next Game: BYE

18. New York Giants (1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS)

Here’s one way to dig through stats with a meaningful purpose: the Giants have the second-best rushing defense in the league. You know how? They face the 5th fewest rush attempts per game, and have the absolute worst secondary in existence. Teams have attempted 140 passes on the Giants, and they’ve given up 1007 passing yards, the most in the NFL. So yeah, this team is pretty much going to make Tyrod Taylor look like a freaking hero.

Next Game: NYG at Buffalo -5.5

19. Philadelphia Eagles (1-2 SU and ATS)

Fact: good things happen when you feature Darren Sproles in your offense. This year alone he’s had 12 touches in Week 1 (a 24-26 loss to the Falcons), 5 touches in Week 2 (a 10-20 loss against the Cowboys) and 15 touches against the Jets (a 24-17 win). If you could force Chip Kelly to feed Sproles more touches, you’re basically going to win a lot of money thanks to Darren Sproles.

Next Game: Philadelphia -3.0 at Washington

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2 SU and ATS)

If you’re a Jacksonville Jaguars fan (I’m pretty sure they exist) and happen to read this, you’re probably thinking, “21st! That’s not bad!” And you’re right. The Jaguars aren’t bad! We’re making progress, Jacksonville!

Next Game: Minnesota at Denver -7.0

21. Cleveland Browns (1-2 SU and ATS)

Why the hell are people ignoring the entirety of Josh McCown’s career? The most games he played was in 2003 and he had 2,511 yards, 10 touchdowns and 21 turnovers. He was ignored by the league twice in 2006 and 2012. Then he has five crazy games with Chicago in 2013 and the Bucs and Browns are pretending like he’s suddenly matured in to Joe Montana at the age of 36 years old. This message is brought to you by an idiot who desperately wants to see some Johnny Football.

Next Game: Cleveland at San Diego -6.5

22. Kansas City Chiefs (1-2 SU and ATS)

Like the rest of America, I saw what happened on Monday night. And even then, are you still going to take any of the teams underneath the Chiefs on this list over them? See how this works?

Next Game: Kansas City at Cincinnati -4.0

23. St. Louis Rams (1-2 SU and ATS)

Probably the most fun stat of the week: the St. Louis Rams rank dead last in first downs this season. Now I know why the beat writer is ranting about getting Brian Quick on to the field as fast as possible.

Next Game: St. Louis at Arizona -7.0

24. Miami Dolphins (1-2 SU and ATS)

See this is what happens when you credit a coach like Joe Philbin for Aaron Rodgers instead of Aaron Rodgers. Ask Denver who it worked out with Tom Brady’s guy Josh McDaniels while you’re at it.

Next Game: NYJ PK vs Miami (London)

25. Houston Texans (1-2 SU and ATS)

The phrase “quarterback controversy” should never be used when it comes to guys like Mallett and Hoyer. Arian Foster can’t get healthy fast enough.

Next Game: Houston at Atlanta -6.5

26. Baltimore Ravens (0-3 SU and ATS)

As a guy who was basically forced to select Justin Forsett to round out one of my RB spots on a fantasy team, let’s just say I’m not very happy with Baltimore right now. They should probably be lower.

Next Game: Baltimore -3.0 at Pittsburgh

27. Washington Redskins (1-2 SU and ATS)

My big question for Washington is this: if you knew that the coach hated RG3, never had any intention of playing him, and was basically conspiring to bury his career…why the hell did you not go find yourself a better backup option than Kirk Cousins when you lived this hellish nightmare last year?

Next Game: Philadelphia -3.0 at Washington

28. San Francisco 49ers (1-2 SU and ATS)

This might be worth an entire article, but what exactly is the danger in letting Colin Kaepernick run the damn football like he did in the first few years when he took the Niners to the Super Bowl and back to the playoffs? Isn’t Russell Wilson sort of proving that if you just let running quarterbacks run the ball, good things happen? I’d rather see him torch teams on the ground then try and pretend he’s a pocket passer. It’s gross.

Next Game: Green Bay -7 at San Francisco

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2 SU and ATS)

Rex Grossman, Brian Griese, Kyle Orton, Jay Cutler, Josh McCown and now Jameis Winston. Are we sure that Lovie Smith has any clue what a good quarterback looks like? HE PICKED JOSH MCCOWN TO BE HIS GUY TWICE.

Next Game: Carolina -3.0 at Tampa

30. New Orleans Saints (0-3 SU and ATS)

I loved the source-less report that Jimmy Graham was unhappy with the Seattle offense. Because it looks like so much more fun in New Orleans right now, right?

Next Game: Dallas at New Orleans

31. Detroit Lions (0-3 SU and ATS)

It’s like the Detroit Lions read a bunch of stupid fantasy reports proclaiming the death of Calvin Johnson and actually believed it themselves. He didn’t atrophy over the summer, guys. Just throw him the damn ball. This whole offense is premised on Stafford slinging it downfield like a bro.

Next Game: Detroit at Seattle -10.0 (Monday)

32. Chicago Bears (0-3 SU and ATS)

If you’re an NFL team in need of a running-back, why aren’t you beating down Chicago’s doors with all the draft picks in the world to get Matt Forte? I mean, what’s stopping you? He’s one of the most reliable players in the league, is never hurt and has pretty much produced top-5 numbers since he was drafted. Imagine if he played on a team that gave a crap!

Next Game: Oakland -3.0 at Chicago

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