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NFL Betting: Dolphins vs. Jets Preview

Posted by Stan Jenkins on 11/30/2013 11:21:39 AM

The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are going to be part of the AFC wild card chase deep into the month of December. Which team will outlast the other and improve its chances of getting the sixth and final seed in the AFC? The winner of this game will gain a leg up in the race and force the other team to win the rematch between these two squads later in December in Miami. Both New York and Miami have been consistently inconsistent this season. Which team is going to straighten things out in week 13?

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Odds: Jets -1.5

Total: 38.5

The Miami Dolphins have endured a hellish month of November, partly if not mostly of their own doing. The internal conflicts and storms created by the Jonathan Martin-Richie Incognito controversy, which was not dealt with in a professional manner by the team’s coaching staff, have sullied the reputation of the Dolphins in larger NFL circles. These events have served as a huge distraction for the team, enough to cause a disjointed performance a few weeks ago in an embarrassing loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. The Dolphins’ offense has been ragged and undependable during this stretch of time. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has actually regressed, relative to where he was at the beginning of this season. It’s true that Tannehill has not received particularly strong pass protection, but he is not making a number of throws and reads he needs to be able to carry out. Miami is failing to sustain drives on manageable third downs, and that’s a critical point of weakness for any offense. The defense is the unit on the team that is doing most of the work and carrying most of the responsibility for Miami’s successes. That defense is generating a really good push at the line of scrimmage, sustaining a pass rush that is thwarting opposing offenses. As long as the Dolphins can pressure New York quarterback Geno Smith this Sunday, they will have a very good chance of forcing multiple turnovers and getting the plays they need to win this game. If Miami’s defense can shorten the field for its offense, the Dolphins would have to feel optimistic about their prospects.

The Jets have been a bad road team this season, but the flip side of their reality is that they’ve been a really good home team. New York has defeated the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints at home, two strong indications of how well this team can play when it puts all the pieces together. Head coach Rex Ryan – who has made two AFC Championship Game appearances in his career – is showing why he led the Jets one step short of the Super Bowl on two occasions. He has skillfully worked around his offense’s limitations and has built his defense into a difference-making unit.


It’s true that the Jets – when at their worst – can look really bad, but they look really good when they are on top of their game. Playing at home, they’re more likely to perform at a high level, and that should be enough against the Dolphins, who are not powerful enough to inspire a lot of confidence on the road.

Pick: Jets -1.5

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