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Monday Night Football Betting Preview – Can Chiefs Rebound Against Packers?

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 9/28/2015 4:01:25 PM

Are you ready for a history lesson? Because this Monday Night Football betting preview is chalk full of them.

In their last prime time effort, the Kansas Chiefs left a ton to be desired so it’s hard to get excited about them as a Monday Night Football betting pick. Actually…it’s a struggle to get that pumped about the Chiefs in general. But surely they’re going to play better than their mistake-prone, five turnover performance against Denver?

We don’t have to revisit last week’s game too much. Alex Smith threw two picks, and Jamaal Charles coughed up two of the team’s three fumbles, while a stiff defense gave up some uncharacteristic touchdowns against a guy who knows them inside and out.

Despite the historic relevance of this Super Bowl I rematch, Green Bay and Kansas don’t play or know each other that well. The last time they played was four years ago. Kansas owns a dominant 6-2 SU and ATS record in their last 8 games against the Packers, but those games spread from 1987 thru 2011.

If we dig deeper in to the trends for Kansas, it’s important to remember that they love playing on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. The last time they played under these lights? They dismantled the Patriots with a capital “D”.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-0)

Monday, September 28th --- Lambeau Field --- 8:30pm EST

Monday Night Football Betting Line: GB -6 (49.0)

Inversely, the Green Bay Packers can be pretty listless when it comes to Monday Night Football betting, a stage where they’re 1-4 ATS in their last 5 matchups. In those games, they’ve lost twice to the Bears (2010 and 2013), crushed Minnesota (2011), got screwed by the refs against Seattle (2012) and barely beat Atlanta (2014). It’s not like the Packers are a lock in prime time games.

Generally speaking, however, the public loves the Packers which might also explain this line. Rodgers and company are solid bets at home with a 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 home games. People who bet frequently on the Packers will know that already.

So there’s a lot of history here even if there isn’t a ton of history between these two teams. We bet on the teams first, and circumstances second. In that light, what do we actually know about Green Bay as we head in to this Monday Night Football betting matchup?

What we may not be willing to accept with Green Bay is that they’re not the explosive, offensive team we’ve known for the past few seasons. The Packers are still churning out a huge amount of points relative to the league with 29.0 per game (5th) but they’re doing so with an offence that is averaging just 341.5 yards (16th) and 211.5 passing yards (21st).

You can say that they just played the Legion of Boom, but that secondary was missing Kam Chancellor…and the other game they played this year was against the Bears. There were chances there. This team just might miss Jordy more than we can say.

The extended loss of Jordy Nelson and the questionable status of Eddie Lacy make the Packers a spotty bet this season, even though people don’t want to admit it. That’s all I’m suggesting. They’re not the unstoppable, scoring juggernaut they’ve been in recent memory and the defence is pretty pedestrian by comparison.

Essentially, this is a much more even matchup than you might think off the cuff. The Chiefs are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a loss and have Jamaal Charles on ten days rest running against the second-worst rush defense in the league.

I’m willing to bet that when you started reading this, you were already sold on Green Bay. It’s your money and you can spend it however you like. I’m just notifying you now that this is not a game that deserves to have a spread of a touchdown for the home team.

Monday Night Football Betting Free Pick – Kansas City +6 (OVER)

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