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Kansas City Conundrum – Are Chiefs Worthy Past Wild Card Weekend Betting?

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 1/7/2016 7:22:13 PM

The Kansas City Chiefs have posed a serious proposition for long-term investors, and seem like a no-brainer take in wild card weekend betting as they visit the Houston Texans in the opening game of the NFL playoffs.

Nearly two-thirds of all action has tracked behind Kansas City and for good reason. They’ve gone 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, boasting a fantastic +15.0 point differential over that stretch. They’ve blown out bad teams by as many as 35 points, and won by narrow margins of 4 points over that time. So the small line should generally encourage heavy action on Kansas City.

The reason that some players are worried about backing Kansas has less to do with their opponents, and more to do with their sordid history in the post season. Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. They’re also 1-9 SU in their last 10 post season efforts, having last won in 1993.

So it’s not like the long standing history of Kansas City football is encouraging. One of the bigger x-factors creating more leverage on Kansas City’s side, however, is the loss of Houston Texans left-tackle Duane Brown who has been essential. Without him it feels like all lanes to Brian Hoyer’s poor face will be wide open for a top shelf defense out of KC.

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) vs. Houston Texans (9-7)

Saturday, January 9th --- NRG Stadium --- 4:35pm EST

Wild Card Weekend Betting Line: Kansas -3.0 (40.0)

It seems like a lofty idea to back the Chiefs as +1700 longshots to win Super Bowl 50, but there is some potentially massive value in the Chiefs at +735 to win the AFC.

One of the reasons is that the only major fault with the Chiefs is their lacking playoff success. Since the modern era of the NFL was conceived, they’ve never been AFC champions and only made it that far once, in 1993. So there’s lots of reasons to keep your money away from this bet.

If you think things though, however, it becomes increasingly difficult to stray from Kansas as a value play given the question marks on other teams. New England has serious offensive line problems, and health concerns across the board. The Broncos are three games away from winning a Super Bowl or watching Peyton Manning’s arm fall off. The Steelers have both injury concerns and issues protecting the football. Ben Roethlisberger is known for his high-risk antics, and those can haunt you.

As for the Chiefs, they’re not only playing out like the logical bet in wild card weekend betting, they’re also an oddly conservative play to snatch the conference from the grasps of other, big name teams.

If anything, when it comes to Kansas City, you’re betting on a team that has a great track record of avoiding critical mistakes. Alex Smith had the fewest turnovers of any quarterback this season, and the offense seems designed to take calculated shots while the staff maintains an unyielding faith in this defensive front. I like that Kansas City can generate a ton of points when necessary, or win fist fights on both sides of the ball in tight games.

In other words, they’re designed for the playoffs. In terms of outright, longer term value, you aren’t going to find a better place to park a small flier or a large prayer in this conference.

And if you’re justifiably worried about them over the course of the playoffs, the Chiefs are still a safe bet to take in wild card weekend betting with a hedge on the UNDER as they totally stifle a helpless Houston offensive line that won’t be able to contain their blitzes. Enjoy your playoff breakout, Marcus Peters.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Pick – Kansas City -3.0 (UNDER)

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