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Friday Night NCAAF Free Picks – Stanford Heavy Favorite At Oregon State

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 9/25/2015 11:19:20 AM

Depending on which poll you look at, Stanford is on the cusp of being a Top-25 team, which is one of the reasons we’re focusing on them in our Friday Night NCAAF free picks.

The Cardinal opened the season as strong favorites at Northwestern, losing that game 6-16 in what was the biggest upset of the first week. Since then, they’ve thrashed Central Florida 31-7 and destroyed USC 41-31 as +9.5 dogs on the road, bringing them to a 2-1 SU and ATS record on the season.

In the Associated Press rankings, Stanford sits outside the top teams, but they ranks 20th in the ESPN college rankings and 24th in the esteemed Coaches Poll. The current leader in the Pac-12 seems to be UCLA, which was vulnerable against BYU last weekend. These two meet in three weeks, and Stanford could position themselves to seize this conference well ahead of a meeting with Oregon.

To maintain their newfound momentum, they need to wiggle past the Beavers, who have been anything but a problem for them in recent meetings. Stanford is 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games against Oregon State. They’re also a notoriously strong road team, going 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 road games.

Stanford’s balanced attack should put them in the win column, but this betting line could make things a bit problematic for Friday Night NCAAF Free Picks. They have to win this game by more than two touchdowns, which hasn’t always been within their behavior.

Stanford Cardinal (2-1) vs. Oregon State Beavers (2-1)

Friday, September 25th --- Reser Stadium --- 10pm EST

Friday Night NCAAF Betting Line: Stanford -13.5

For their part, the Beavers have been running their way over lackluster competition so far this year. They have a staunch rushing game which ranks 41st in the country, averaging 214.3 yards per game. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated in to too many points. With just 22.7 points scored per game, the Beavers leave a lot to be desired as a home dog.

It doesn’t help matters that gamblers are routinely suspicious of Oregon State. The Beavers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with winning records. They’re also a pitiful 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents and are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Friday Night NCAAF free picks. People make far more money betting against the Beavers than taking a chance on them.

All things considered, Stanford is the logical bet here. They’re usually not a world destroyer on the scoreboard, but the loss to Northwestern has thrust them in to an undesirable position. The only way to climb up the rankings is with constant, stomp sessions of the lower level teams. They’ll then need some big wins against UCLA and Oregon down the road to regain their good standing in the rankings.

Expect the Cardinal to air it out against a suspect Beavers secondary that hasn’t been thoroughly or properly tested. Quarterback Kevin Hogan may not be one of the best in the business, but he’s more than familiar with this offence and can find seams all night long. Stanford needs to use this spotlight to regain some of their swagger. I don’t see any reason that Oregon State won’t let them.

Friday Night NCAAF Free Picks – Stanford -13.5

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