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Betting the Super Bowl MVP – What If It’s Not Cam Newton?

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 2/5/2016 4:44:15 PM

If you ask the oddsmakers and the general public, Cam Newton is a lock to win the Super Bowl MVP. So everyone in the universe is betting accordingly. Newton is getting -145 odds to win the award and is a landslide favorite in this market.

But what if he doesn’t win the award? When someone is favored as strongly in a prop market as this, it creates an overflow on the other options. That means one thing: there’s value all over the place if you expect some diamond to emerge from the rough.

Let’s take a look at a handful of worthy Super Bowl MVP candidates that aren’t named Cam Newton even though we can all admit that he’s the favorite in this category for a really good reason.

Peyton Manning +370 To Win Super Bowl MVP

I’m just listing this here so I didn’t ignore the subject, but Peyton Manning winning this award seems ludicrous. He hasn’t even been the best player on his own damn team. Of course, he could dial it back to his days as a league MVP and shock us. I mean, the number here is great if you feel like tossing some cheddar on the sandwich. By all means, go for it. It just doesn’t cut my mustard.Von Miller +2450

Three linebackers have won this award in the history of the Super Bowl MVP award. Those guys are Chuck Howly (1971), Ray Lewis (2001) and Malcolm Smith (2014). So it happens intermittently, but it wasn’t long ago that a backer infected the big game to a degree that he stole the MVP award from the quarterback of his own team.

Von Miller is probably a better safety net bet if that’s your fancy. He mauled Tom Brady last week, and is the kind of athlete that can key on Cam Newton. A big day on the box score with a turnover, some sacks and tons of pressure could put Miller over the top in a big way.

If you’re going to hedge on the idea that the Broncos win the Super Bowl, Von Miller will be directly responsible for them doing so. So he’s worth a look here considering how gargantuan the payout on his Super Bowl MVP odds are.

Jonathan Stewart +2300

Stewart has silently been a force of nature in the playoffs so far. He’s piled up a whopping 5.0 yards per carry, while totaling 189 yards and 2 touchdowns so far. Part of what makes the Panthers running game so effective is that teams can’t account for Stewart and Newton at the same time. If the Broncos have schemed everything around silencing Cam Newton, then Stewart could have an enormous day, just like he did against Seattle two weeks ago. Newton might feel like the go-to entity in this market, but Stewart is by far the best value proposition.

Brock Osweiller +8000

Just kidding.

Graham Gano +15000

I’m sort of not kidding, but also not totally serious…nah, forget it.

Greg Olsen +2800 / Emmanuel Sanders +2800

It takes a lot for a receiver to do enough in a Super Bowl to win the award. But it’s happened six times in the history of the game. Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Deion Branch, Lynn Swan, Fred Biletnikoff and the immortal Jerry Rice have all won the Super Bowl MVP. If there are any two pass catchers in this Sunday’s championship game that can steal the show, it’s Olsen and Sanders. Take your pick depending on who you think is going to win the Super Bowl. I prefer Olsen.

Josh Norman +4000

Norman could very well be the best cornerback in the game, and if Peyton Manning is crazy enough to test him, then there’s a chance here that “Batman” could become just the second cornerback in history to win the award. It hasn’t happened since 1996, when Larry Brown did so with the Cowboys. Brown netted two picks to get there. Think Norman’s capable of it? Then 40-to-1 is staring you right there in the face.

If Norman does win the Super Bowl 50 award, we might all lose. We’d never hear the end of it.


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