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Best AFC Home Game Bets in Week 5

Posted by Matthew Forrester on 10/11/2015 8:21:13 AM

For some teams, the term “home sweet home” isn’t the case, which is why I’ve gone ahead and highlighted the best AFC home game bets of the week with the stronger conference hosting visiting teams. Don’t make the mistake of over reacting to last weekend, and I’ll tell you why as we go game-by-game.

By the way, the one team I haven’t covered this week is New England over Dallas, which you should take blind. No Sean Lee for Dallas and their defense goes to hell. Just watch.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -9.5 over Chicago Bears (1pm EST)

I’m amongst those that want to bury the Kansas City Chiefs, but I just can’t when they play at home against bad teams. Overall, KC is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games at Arrowhead Stadium, and are also 5-1 ATS when playing a team with a losing record. I want to put more stock in to their recent losses, but those were against good teams.

Chicago stinks, and without Alshon Jeffrey, the speedy and ferocious linebacking unit of KC can limit the impact Matt Forte has on this game. The Bears continue to be a terrible road bet, going just 1-4 ATS when travelling, as well as 1-4 ATS when playing on the road against teams with losing records. There’s no reason to get frisky with Chicago here.

Despite recent woes and a giant line, Kansas remains one of the best AFC home game gets in Week 5.

CINCINNATI BENGALS -3.0 over Seattle Seahawks (1pm EST)

While the Seahawks are without Marshawn Lynch, I’m not touching them. Russell Wilson looked pedestrian against Detroit last weekend and are just 1-3-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning record. The Bengals are also 17-5-1 ATS when playing at home and are one of the hottest bets overall. A no-brainer with a one-dimensional Seattle passing game that won’t do anything to gain momentum. The seams in Seattle are also starting to fray, so keep a close eye on this game for future bets too.

Cleveland Browns +6 over BALTIMORE RAVENS (1pm EST)

Ok, Josh McCown. I’ll give you this one game, because if any team is going to allow you time to unwind in the pocket, it’s Baltimore. McCown has the slowest release of any quarterback in the game, but if he’s allowed time, he can be relatively efficient (for him). I love what I see out of the feisty Browns, while Baltimore shows no punch whatsoever.

At just 0-3-1 ATS overall, Baltimore continues its trend of laying down for everyone. There’s no possible way I can endorse this team as one of the best AFC home game bets, and I love the volume of points that Cleveland is getting here from the oddsmakers.

Denver Broncos -4 over OAKLAND RAIDERS (4:25pm EST)

The running game continues to be a nightmare for the Denver Broncos, but as long as they have Manning adjusting to his fading arm strength, they still have a chance. Oakland is 3-7 ATS when playing AFC West opponents, and a brutal 0-6-1 ATS when playing Denver. This is simply a matchup that Denver doesn’t lose.

The misconception with the Broncos is that you’re betting on their offense, but in reality you can lock in on their defense. Von Miller and company were disrupted by Adrian Peterson, but there’s no way I’m putting Latavius Murray on that level. Denver gets back to business and is a terrific bet on the road this weekend with a middling line.

Pittsburgh Steelers +4 over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (Monday)

The easy thing to do is bet against Vick, but he was more than capable in reserve last week against Baltimore. And with Josh Scobee packing his bags, you don’t have to worry about him shanking kicks anymore. Pittsburgh will continue to pour it on offensively, and still have Bell, Brown and a returning Bryant.

San Diego presents some immediate intrigue at first glance, but can’t be trusted as on the best AFC bets of the week, because they’re just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall, and just 1-10 ATS against the AFC. Pittsburgh is also 7-3-1 ATS when playing the Chargers.

The up-and-down Chargers still can’t run the ball to save their lives, making things easier for the Steelers defensively. With the vast majority of the public going against Vick after a loss last week that wasn’t his fault at all, do the smart thing and bet Pittsburgh. San Diego is far from being one of the best AFC home game bets at just 1-6 ATS in their own building.

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