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3 Steps To Pick A Winning Playoff Fantasy Football Roster

Posted by Jackson Anthony on 1/6/2012 6:50:46 PM

It’s playoff time in the NFL, and for the 90% of us that lost in our fantasy football league, it means another shot at winning something and bragging rights for the offseason.

First off, if you haven’t seen it already, this NFL commercial about the fantasy Playoffs is classic:

Now, I’d like to outline my process for picking a Survivor Playoff NFL Fantasy roster that will statistically improve your chances of making a winning roster.

What is a Survivor league?

A Survivor Playoff league’s winner is determined by the roster that totals the highest cumulative fantasy points over the duration of the NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl.

You may only pick 1 player from any team that makes the playoffs to be on your 9,10, or 12-man roster (dependant upon your league).

So, if "Team A" picks Drew Brees (QB, New Orleans Saints), then "Team A" can no longer take anyone else from the New Orleans Saints to fill his/her roster. But, if "Team A" picks Drew Brees then "Team B" can still pick Drew Brees.

Our league used a 9-man roster:

The scoring point system is usually the same as standard fantasy football.

Below, I’ve outlined the steps that I follow when picking my NFL Playoffs Fantasy roster:

1. Download and fill out this NFL Playoffs Bracket

NFL Playoffs Bracket

2. Organize each team’s potential

This will help you figure out which teams have the most potential to play the most games. Based on your bracket, you will be able to determine the maximum and minimum NFL lines games that each team could play.

I setup a quick excel sheet to organize the playoff teams based on minimum and maximum number of games.

You go as far as highlighting the teams that have the most potential for the most games. What your trying to do is optimize your chances of picking players that can score more points because they play more games.

It isn’t a perfect system because 1 player that plays 1 game may have a monster performance and destroy the player that gets 2 games, however this system is based on probabilities (and a player that plays 2 games has a better chance at scoring more points than one that only gets 1 game).

3. Pick your roster

Now that you know which teams have the greatest potential for the most games, you are ready to fill in your roster.  You will want to fill the highest scoring positions on your roster with players from the teams that have the greatest potential to play the most playoff games.

The positions that typically get you the most points are quarterback and running back.

Here’s a look at my picks for our 9-man pool:
QB                         Drew Brees, NO
RB                        Ray Rice, BAL
RB                        Arian Foster, HOU
RB/WR            Jordy Nelson, GB
WR                        Calvin Johnson, DET
WR                        Victor Cruz, NYG
TE                        Rob Gronkowski, NE
K                        David Akers, SF
DEF                        Pittsburgh

Feel free to leave any comments below. Thanks and good luck!


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